Long Sentences by the Numbers
Launched by the Council in spring 2022, the Task Force on Long Sentences is assessing our nation’s use of long prison terms and formulating recommendations to advance safety and justice. This series of charts serves as a foundation for the deliberations of the group, a diverse set of experts from varied sectors of the criminal justice field and across the ideological spectrum.
The data below address three fundamental questions. Each provides a different perspective on the nature and extent of long prison sentences, which the Task Force defines as a court-imposed prison term of 10 years or more, independent of the time people actually serve.
- Admissions: What is the number and share of people admitted with a long prison sentence? Admissions data show changes in the frequency with which courts impose long sentences.
- Population: What is the size of the prison population serving long sentences, and what share of the total population do these individuals represent? Prison population data, based on a snapshot of people incarcerated at a moment in time (typically at year’s end), reveal how many people behind bars are serving long sentences.
- Releases: What are the number and share of people released from prison after serving a long sentence and how much time can they expect to serve? Many jurisdictions have statutes and policies that permit people to be released prior to serving their maximum sentence (the value used for analysis). These typically include discretionary parole release and/or sentence credit discounts for good behavior and program completion. Release data enable us to discern how many people are released after having served 10 or more years, independent of the upper limit of their sentences.
The charts listed below reflect data from 23 state prison systems submitted to the National Corrections Reporting System (NCRP) from 2005 through 2020. Council researchers selected the states and time period because they offered the most complete and consistent set of relevant national-level data to describe basic trends in long sentences. For each analysis, the states selected account for 68% of the United States population. The analyses do not include data from the federal prison system or local jails.
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant changes in crime patterns and the operations of law enforcement agencies and courts. Through a combination of reduced admissions and increased releases, state prison populations saw historic declines. Due to the unique influence of the pandemic across the system, the analyses below contextualize overall trends when 2019 values significantly differ from 2020 values. See the supplemental methodology report for detailed procedures.
Key Takeaways
- People with long sentences account for a relatively small share of state prison admissions and releases, but because they serve long periods, their numbers stack up over time. In 2020, 16% of people admitted to prison were sentenced to 10 years or more, and 5% of those released had served 10 years or more. At year-end, 63% of people in prison were serving a long prison sentence, up from 46% in 2005 and 56% in 2019. The growth was due largely to smaller numbers of people serving shorter sentences.
- The expected length of stay in prison for people sentenced to 10 years or more decreased from 11.7 years in 2005 to 9.4 years in 2019.
- The share of people convicted of a violent crime who received a long sentence grew by about 10% from approximately 29% in 2005 to 32% in 2019; from 2019 to 2020, that share decreased by more than 10% to 28.7%, the lowest value over the study period. The share of people convicted of drug crimes and property offenses increased by 34% and 64%, respectively, from 2005 to 2020. Unlike violent offenses, the shares of people convicted of drug crimes or property offenses increased somewhat from 2019 to 2020.
- The shares of Black and White adults receiving long sentences have grown over time and the gap between those shares has widened, from half a percentage point in 2005 to four percentage points in 2020 (not adjusting for offense type, criminal history, or other factors that influence sentencing).
- In 2005, Black adults were more likely than White adults to receive a long sentence across six categories of violent offenses; by 2020, some of these disparities were reduced, eliminated, or changed direction. For example, in 2005, 90% of Black adults and 86% of White adults received a long sentence for murder; in 2020, 90% of both Black and White adults received a long sentence for murder. White adults were more likely to receive long sentences for some property crimes including larceny and motor vehicle theft over the study period. In 2005, White adults convicted of drug crimes were more likely receive a long sentence; in 2020, Black adults were more likely.
- Compared to other age groups, people aged 55 and over are the fastest-growing age group serving long sentences. Between 2005 and 2020, the share of people serving long sentences who were aged 55 and over grew from 8% to 20%, a 153% increase.
- Men are more likely than women to receive and serve a long sentence. On average, men are about 75% more likely to receive a long sentence and over three times more likely to serve a long sentence than women, differences related mostly to the fact that men are convicted of more serious, violent crimes. Greater shares of both men (up 4%) and women (up 4%) received sentences of 10 years or more in 2020 than in 2005.
Long Sentences by Admissions
Overall Admissions
In 2020, approximately 16% of all people admitted to state prisons were sentenced to a term of 10 years or more. Half of prison admissions were for less than five years. About 83% of those admitted to prison in 2020 with a long sentence were sentenced to 10 to 24.9 years. The remaining percentage received a sentence of 25 years or more (13%) or a sentence of life, life without parole, or a death sentence (4%).
Although the share of people admitted with a long sentence remained stable from 2019 to 2020 (decreasing from 17% in 2019 to 16% in 2020), the composition of long sentences changed somewhat. In 2019, 80% of those admitted to prison with a long sentence were sentenced to 10 to 24.9 years, 15% received a sentence of 25 years or more, and 5% received a life, life without parole, or death sentence.
Percent of People Admitted to Prison by Sentence Length, 2020
Number of Admissions
The number of people admitted to serve a long sentence in state prisons increased between 2005 and 2009, before leveling off for the next five years. Beginning in 2014, admissions declined and thereafter saw little movement. Levels in 2019 were similar to those in 2006. However, there was a 46% drop in long sentence admissions from 2019 to 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Number of People Admitted with a Long Sentence
Share of Admissions
Between 2005 and 2019, the share of people who received a long sentence grew from 12% to 17%. This growth was primarily a function of a 27% decrease in the number of individuals who received a sentence shorter than 10 years. From 2019 to 2020, the number of long sentence admissions significantly decreased (from just over 43,000 to about 23,000), while the share of admissions dropped only slightly.
Share of People Admitted with a Long Sentence
Long Sentences Behind Bars
People in Prison Serving Long Sentences
Between 2005 and 2019, the number of people serving long sentences in state prisons grew slightly before leveling off, while the share of incarcerated people serving time for sentences of 10 years or more increased steadily. In 2005, people serving long sentences accounted for 46% of the prison population. By 2019, that proportion had grown to 56%. This increase is more substantial than the growth of people admitted to prison with long sentences because of the mathematical “stacking effect.” The stacking effect occurs when people remain behind bars for long periods of time, causing a cumulative impact on the prison population even when annual admissions are small, remain stable, or decline.
From 2019 to 2020, the number of people serving a long sentence decreased by 7%, from just over 472,000 to just under 440,000. However, the share of people serving a long sentence increased from 56% to nearly 63%.
Number and Share of People Serving a Long Sentence
Long Sentences by Release
States vary widely in laws and policies that determine how much of a maximum prison sentence a person serves behind bars. The chief factors governing when someone is released from prison include the severity of the underlying offense (or offenses), one’s prior criminal record, credits earned for good conduct and participation in rehabilitative programming, the availability of discretionary parole release, and assessment of the likelihood of success on post-release supervision.
People Released After Serving 10 or More Years
Apart from those serving life without parole or sentences that exceed people’s natural life span, the vast majority of people issued a long sentence will ultimately be released. The share of people released from prison who had served 10 years or more (regardless of the length of their court-imposed sentence) is small, but it has grown over time. Between 2005 and 2019, the share of people who had served more than 10 years in prison when they were first released (that is, they were not serving additional years on a sentence after a parole revocation) increased from 1% to 4%. By 2020, that share increased to 5%.
Number and Share of People Released After Serving 10+ Years
Expected Length of Stay
The time served by people released in a particular year is the most common way to gauge prison length of stay. But that measure may underrepresent people serving longer sentences, because those individuals are less likely to be released in any given year. Therefore, expected length of stay was calculated to identify the amount of time a person could expect to serve of their court-imposed maximum sentence in prison prior to release. In 2005, people admitted on a new court commitment with a long sentence had an estimated length of stay of 11.7 years. In 2019, that value dropped to 9.4 years. In other words, a person who received a long sentence in 2019 would expect to stay in prison for about two fewer years than if they had been admitted in 2005. Substantial (more than 5%) increases or decreases in the size of the population, however, may bias the generated estimates. In 2020, the population of people serving a long sentence decreased by nearly 7%, reducing confidence in the expected length of stay value for that year and indicating that any value would likely understate actual length of stay for people admitted during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, expected length of stay is not presented for 2020. See the supplemental methodology report for detailed procedures; see below for data regarding post-release supervision as jurisdictions with discretionary parole release anticipate people serving some portion of their long sentence in prison and the remainder in the community under parole supervision.
Expected Length of Stay for People Admitted with a Long Sentence
Post-Release Supervision
From 2005 to 2019, the share of people released from prison after serving 10 or more years (independent of the upper limit of their sentences) who were subject to parole or some other form of mandatory post-release supervision rose from 67% to 76%. This value fell to 74% in 2020. The share of people subject who released from prison unconditionally (with no post-release supervision) after serving a long sentence decreased by 36% over time, from 25 percentage points in 2005 to 16 percentage points in 2020. Most unconditional releases involve people who have “maxed out” their sentences, or served every day of the maximum sentence. These individuals are no longer subject to correctional control and are unlikely to receive supervision, treatment, or other reentry support. From 2019 to 2020, the share of individuals who were released by some other means (which includes commutation/pardon, death, transfer, AWOL, escape, and other categories not listed) increased by 46% to more than 10% of releases, the highest value observed over the study period. It is not clear whether correctional systems used the “other” category to describe COVID-19 releases or if this value will be adjusted when data are next updated.
Share of Long Sentence Releases by Supervision Type
Long Sentences by Offense
Offense Types
More than half (56%) of the people admitted to prison with a long sentence in 2020 were convicted of a violent offense, while 18% were convicted of drug crimes, which include possession, distribution, and trafficking. Another 11% were sentenced for public order offenses, which vary widely and include firearms violations, habitual driving under the influence, prostitution, and disorderly conduct. This breakdown is similar to 2019 figures where 57% of people admitted to prison with a long sentence were convicted of a violent offense, 16% were convicted of drug crimes, and 13% were convicted of public order offenses.
Long Sentence Admission Cohort Offense Types, 2020
Admissions by Offense Type
The share of people convicted of a violent crime who received a long sentence grew incrementally from approximately 29% in 2005 to 32% in 2019, an increase of nearly 10%. However, from 2019 to 2020, that share decreased to 28.7%, representing the lowest value over the study period. The share of people convicted of drug crimes who received long sentences increased more than three percentage points from 2005 to 2020, a 34% increase. The share of people convicted of property offenses who received a long sentence increased from 6% in 2005 to 10% in 2020, a 65% increase. Unlike violent offenses, the shares of people convicted of drug crimes or property offenses increased somewhat from 2019 to 2020.
Share of Newly Admitted People Receiving Long Sentences by Offense Type
Long Sentences by Most Serious Offense
From 2005 to 2020, the share of people receiving long sentences increased for all offense types except robbery. The biggest jump was for rape and sexual assault; people sentenced for those crimes were 11 percentage points more likely to receive a long sentence in 2019 and seven percentage points more likely to receive a long sentence in 2020 than in 2005. Most people convicted of murder received a sentence of 10 years or more. Roughly one in 10 people convicted of drug crimes received a long sentence in both 2005 and 2020. Approximately 4% of people convicted of public order violations (which include weapons offenses) received a long sentence in 2005; this share doubled to 8.5% in 2020.
Share of Newly Admitted People Sentenced to 10+ Years by Most Serious Conviction Offense
Though murder defendants were the most likely to receive a long sentence, drug offenses accounted for the largest share of those admitted to prison to serve 10 or more years. Cumulatively across the 16-year study period, drug cases accounted for 20% of total long-sentence admissions, while rape/sexual assault cases accounted for 16%, robbery 13%, murder/negligent manslaughter 9%, and aggravated assault cases accounted for 13%.
Across the study period, at year-end an average of three quarters of people in prison for long sentences were convicted of violent offenses, including 22% for murder/negligent manslaughter, 19% for rape/sexual assault, 16% for robbery, 13% for aggravated assault, and 10% for drug violations.
Long Sentences by Race
Admissions by Race
The shares of Black and White adults receiving long sentences have grown over time and the gap between those shares has widened, from half a percentage point in 2005 to four percentage points in 2020 (not adjusting for offense type, criminal history, or other factors that influence sentencing).
Share of Newly Admitted People Sentenced to 10+ Years by Race
Releases by Race
Trends in the share of Black and White adults who were released after serving 10 years or more in prison (independent of the upper limit of their sentences) are similar to those for admissions. The difference in the share of Black adults versus White adults who served a long sentence increased from less than one percentage point to just over three percentage points, a 305% increase from 2005 to 2020. In 2020, Black adults were three times as likely as White adults to have been released from prison after serving a long sentence (not adjusting for conviction offenses, criminal histories, or other factors that influence sentencing and release decisions). The racial gap in those who served a long sentence grew between 2005 and 2019 and widened somewhat in 2020.
Share of Released People Who Served 10+ Years by Race
Comparisons by Race and Offense
In 2005, Black adults were more likely than White adults to receive a long sentence across six categories of violent offenses; by 2020, some of these disparities were reduced, eliminated, or changed direction. For example, from 2005 to 2020, the percentages of both Black and White adults sentenced to 10 years for murder increased, although these increases were marginal among Black adults and more substantial–increasing nearly 5%–among White adults. In 2020, the racial gap in who received a long sentence was relatively small across all offense types. Although the overall share of individuals decreased from 2005 to 2020, Black adults were more likely than White adults to receive a long sentence for robbery at both time points. White adults were more likely to receive long sentences for some property crimes including larceny and motor vehicle theft in both 2005 and 2020. In 2005, White adults convicted of drug crimes were more likely receive a long sentence; in 2020, Black adults were more likely.
People Admitted to Prison by Offense and Race, 2005 and 2020
Long Sentences by Sex
Admissions by Sex
While the share of men and women receiving long state prison sentences remained stable from 2005 to 2019, greater shares of both sexes received sentences of 10 years or more over the study period. On average, men were about 75% more likely to receive a long sentence (not adjusting for offense type, criminal history, or other factors that influence sentencing) over the study period. However, from 2019 to 2020, the share of men who received a long sentence decreased by over 40% (46% for men; 43% for women).
Long Sentence Admissions by Sex
Admissions by Sex and Offense Type
Far more men than women are convicted of violent crimes. In 2020, 93% of people who received a long sentence for a violent offense were men. Greater shares of women are convicted and admitted to prison on long sentences for drug offenses (17%) and property crimes (12%) than for violent offenses (7%). These values remained similar from 2019 to 2020.
People Sentenced to 10+ Years by Offense Type and Sex, 2020
Long Sentences by Age
Admissions for 18- to 24-year-olds declined steadily from a high of 29% in 2008 to 17% in 2020, a drop of 39%. From 2005 to 2020, the share of 25- to 34-year-olds admitted to prison with a long sentence remained relatively stable from a low of 33% to a high of 35%. The share of 35- to 44-year-olds decreased from 2005 to a low of 22% in 2012 and then rose to 27% in 2020, the highest value over the study period. Admissions for all people over age 45 rose over the study period, with admissions for people aged 55 and older more than doubling (up 121%) from 2005 to 2020.
The overall shift in the number of people admitted to prison with a long sentences is due to substantial decreases in the number of younger people being admitted over the study period and significant decreases in all admissions during 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic when many courts were shut down. For example, in 2005, more than 11,000 people aged 18 to 24 years old were admitted with a long sentence; in 2019, this number dropped to just under 8,000, a 30% decrease. From 2019 to 2020, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds had dropped further to about 4,000, a 49% decrease. For those aged 25 to 34 years old, admissions increased 9% from about 13,400 in 2005 to nearly 14,600. In 2020, however, this number fell to about 8,000, a 45% decrease from 2019. Admissions for adults aged 35 to 44 years old increased 14% from just under 10,000 in 2005 to just over 11,300 in 2019. This number decreased to about 6,200 in 2020, a 45% decrease from 2019 and a 37% decrease over the entire study period. The number of 45- to 54-year-old adults increased 27% from about 4,600 in 2005 to just under 5,900 in 2019. From 2019 to 2020, this number deceased 46% to just under 3,200. The number of people aged 55 and over admitted with a long sentence increased 138% from approximately 1,400 in 2005 to more than 3,400 in 2019. From 2019 to 2020, this number decreased 47% to just over 1,800.
The prison population serving long sentences aged over the study period as people “stacked up” over time. Compared to other age groups, people aged 55 and over are the fastest-growing age group serving long sentences. Between 2005 and 2020, the share of people serving long sentences who were aged 55 and over grew from 8 percentage points to 20 percentage points, a 153% increase. Other age groups remained stable over the study period, including people between the ages of 35 and 44 years old, who make up approximately one-third of the population serving long sentences.
Long Sentence Admissions, Population, and Releases by Age Group
